沉思录——宏观、微观与市场.docxVIP

MarketInsights市场洞察

Ruminations-Macro,Mirco,Markets

沉思录——宏观、微观与市场

Thingsdon’tquitefeelright….butthatdoesn’tmeantheyarewrong.

市场氛围略显异样……但这并不意味着存在谬误。

Institutionalclientslonggrossriskandlonghedge…whichmasksthemicrolengthbyreflectinglessnetexposurethanyoumightexpectforaworldseeingalltimehighs

everywhere.Retaillongeverything.CTAhavegotbacktolongbutnotoverly.Hedge

fundsgrosseduplastweek.Toquoteonecolleague….investorsareuncomfortablylong…andatthesametimewishingtheyhadbeenlonger.Clearlyastatementoftheobviousgivenyeartodateperformance…butstrangelyaptforayearthathasfeltlike4yearsandcycles

rolledinto9months.

机构客户总风险敞口做多且对冲头寸做多……通过呈现低于预期的净敞口，掩盖了微观层面的多头头寸——尽管全球市场正普遍创下历史新高。散户全面做多。商品交易顾问已重返多头但未过度加仓。对冲基金上周扩大了总敞口。引用一位同僚的话……投资者正承受着不安的多头仓位……同时又懊悔当初没加更多杠杆。鉴于年内迄今的表现，这显然是句大实话……但对于这个将四年周期浓缩在九个月内、令人感觉漫长的年份，却奇妙地恰如其分。

Ifwebreakthisdownintobigpictureandlittlepicture.Thebigpictureseemsclear-a

marketpricinginnorecession(anytimesoon),lowerratesandthebenefitsoffedcuttingcyclekickoff,Aibenefits,corporateprofitsandmarginsholdingupandUSsupremacy

reassertingitself.USmarketsnowhousingfour$3trillionpluscompanies…their5largestcompaniesaccountingfor20%oftheworldsequitymarketcap…and9ofthe10biggestcompaniesintheUSeffectivelyAiplays(withlikesofOracleknockingatthedoorjust

outsidethetop10).Eachandeveryconcern..political,fiscal,deficits,geopolitics,$,tariffimpact,re-inflation,jobmarketseemstobecompartmentalisedandignored.Inspiteof

this….clientpositioningdoesn’tmatchtheheadlineindexeuphoriawithRussell

2000joiningNasdaq,SP,Japan,Korea,Japanintheomnialltimehighrecordsfallingregularlyatthemoment.

若将之分解为大图景与小细节，大图景似乎清晰可见——市场正消化着近期无衰退的预期、利率下调的利好、美联储降息周期启动的效益、人工智能红利持续释放、企业盈利与利润率保持韧性，以及美国全球主导地位的重新彰显。美股现已孕育四家市值超三万亿美元的巨头企业…其前五大公司占据全