IMF-不平衡贸易2.0（英）-2025.9.pdfVIP

UnbalancedTrade2.0

AlejandroCuñatandRobertZymek

WP/25/191

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2025

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©2025InternationalMonetaryFundWP/25/191

IMFWorkingPaper

ResearchDepartment

UnbalancedTrade2.0

AlejandroCuñatandRobertZymek*

AuthorizedfordistributionbyPetiaTopalova

September2025

IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicit

commentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseofthe

author(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.

ABSTRACT:Dotradeimbalancesboostincomesinsurpluseconomiesattheexpenseofdeficiteconomies?

Weshowthattheanswerisyesinanimportantsubclassofquantitativetrademodels.Thisistheconsequence

ofscaleeconomiesconcentratedinthetradedsector.Ariseinnetexportscausesthetradedsectortoexpand,

whichraisesproductivityandrealincomeinsurpluseconomies.Theflipsideisadeclineinproductivityand

incomeindeficiteconomies.Underplausiblecalibrationsofthestrengthandincidenceofscaleeconomies,

observedtradeimbalancescauseasizeableredistributionofthegainsfromtradetowardssurpluseconomies.

Iftheseimbalancesaremodelledastheoutcomeofsteady-stateequilibriumi