IMF-高利率如何影响银行：贷款损失和宏观审慎政策的作用（英）-2025.9.pdfVIP

HowDoHighInterest

RatesAffectBanks:The

RolesofLoanLossesand

MacroprudentialPolicy

RomainBouis,SumaiyahMirza,andErlendNier

WP/25/196

IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchin

progressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedto

elicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.

TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersare

thoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarily

representtheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,

orIMFmanagement.

2025

SEP

©2025InternationalMonetaryFundWP/25/196

IMFWorkingPaper

MonetaryandCapitalMarketsDepartment

HowDoHighInterestRatesAffectBanks:TheRolesofLoanLossesandMacroprudentialPolicy

PreparedbyRomainBouis,SumaiyahMirza,andErlendNier

AuthorizedfordistributionbyChristopherErceg

September2025

IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicit

commentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseofthe

author(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.

ABSTRACT:Thispaperexaminesempiricallyhowtheeffectofinterestratesonthethreecomponentsofbank

profits–loanlossprovisions,netinterestmargin,andnon-interestincome–variesdependingonbank

characteristicsandthemacroprudentialpolicyenvironment.Anewfindingisthathigherinterestratesleadto

largerloanlossprovisionsforbanksofferingflexible-rateloans,butthatthiseffectisattenuatedwhen

macroprudentialborrower-basedmeasureshavebeentightinprecedingyears.Tightermacroprudential

settingsalsoreducetheeffectofhigherunemploymentonloanlossprovisionsrecordedbybanks,