不稳定的地面 2025-2027 年全球经济展望：2025 年下半年.docxVIP

Unsteadyground

GlobalEconomicOutlook2025–2027:2H2025

KearneyForesight

GlobalBusinessPolicyCouncil

Ourupdatereflects

persistentdownside

risksalongsidemountingcomplexities,fueled

byeconomic

policyuncertainty,

geopoliticalvolatility,andrapidadvances

inartificialintelligence.

Foreword

Wetitledour1H2025GlobalEconomicOutlook

Unchartedterritory,areflectionofthemounting

economicvolatilityevidentacrossarangeof

dimensions.ReleasedshortlyaftertheUStariff

announcementsonApril2,thereporthighlightedkeyfactorslikelytodisproportionatelyshapethethree-

yeareconomicoutlook,includinggeopoliticalrisk,theproliferationofindustrialpolicyandtheuseoftariffs,aweakeningofdomesticandinternationalinstitutions,technologicaldisruption,and

environmentaldegradation.

Thepastsixmonthshaveproveneventfulineachoftheseareas,fromgeopoliticalflashpointsinthe

MiddleEasttorapidadvancesinartificialintelligence,fromsurging(andoftencontested)tariffstogrowingsupplychainresiliencecapabilities.Theneteffectsofthesedevelopmentspaintacomplexpicture.While

globaloutputgrowthremainswellbelowourJanuaryprojections,numbershavetickedupwardsinceour1HreleaseinApril.InvestmentsinAI,stockpilingof

importedgoodsinanticipationoftariff

implementation,andthestrongperformancesofselecteconomieshavepartiallyoffsetsome

downwardpressures.

Our2Hreportoffersanoverviewoftherefreshed

globaleconomicdatathrough2027andlooksatthetrendsunderpinningchangestothefoundations

ofthemacroeconomy.Thisincludesanassessmentofsignificantchangestoeconomicpolicy,alook

atemergingcomplicationsrelatedtogeoeconomicfragmentation,ananalysisoftradetrendsandtheirindustryimplications,andAI’semergenceas

aneconomicwildcard.

OurreviseddatasuggeststhatAsiaandAustralasia

willedgeaheadoftheMiddleEastandAfricaasthe

world