应变之道：后全球化转型中的企业领导力重构_TURN TO FACE THE STRAIN.docxVIP

PRISM

BIG

BIGTHINKING,

IMAGININGWHATISCOMINGNEXT

PRISMSPECIALREPORT:OVERALLBUSINESSOUTLOOK—FACEUPTOANEWERAOFREGIONALIZATION

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OVERALLBUSINESSOUTLOOK—

FACEUPTOANEWERAOFREGIONALIZATION

ARTHURD.LITTLE

ARADICALLYCHANGEDWORLD

Whilethegeopoliticalenvironment

hasbecomeincreasinglyunstable,the

businessleadersinourinterviewsare

generallyoptimisticaboutuncertainty

anddisruption.Theypointoutthatthis

hasbeenanalmostpermanentfeatureofthebusinessenvironment,atleastsincetheCOVID-19pandemic,andtoalesser

extent,sincethe2008globalfinancial

crisis.Mosthavealreadytakenstepstobuildgreaterresilience,responsiveness,andagility.Therefore,thelatest

developmentsareseenmoreasanothermoveinthesamedirectionthana

freshcrisis.

However,nearlyallagreethatthechangesaremuchmorethana

blipintheinevitableprogressofglobalization.Theyrecognizethatwehaveenteredanewerainglobaltrade,characterizedbyashift

awayfromrules-basedglobalinterdependencetowardprotectionismandtransactional,interest-basedregionalalignment.Thisrequiresdifferentstrategiesgoingforward(seebelow).

“Regionalizationisprobablyontopofmindformany

internationalcompaniesrightnow,andintermsofsupply

chainandfinancinganddevelopmentandoperations.”

[Manufacturinggroup]

“Thenewnormaloflogisticsisthatit,snevergoingtobestable

anymore.Andsotradeflowsthatyouaredesigningrationally,

andthatyou,retryingtomanageonaglobalscale,don,t

workanymore.”

[Automotivegroup]

“Ratherthan…embarkingonaglobalizingprogram…we,ve

kindofsaid,no,we,regoingtodothatmoreonaregionalbasis.”

[Automotivegroup]

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PRISMSPECIALREPORT:OVERALLBUSINESSOUTLOOK—FACEUPTOANEWERAOFREGIONALIZATION

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“Formanyyears,[localization]hasbeenpartofourstrategyt