中产阶级：收入阶层还是文化身份？——2025年第三季度消费者压力指数更新.docxVIP

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Middleclass:

incomebandorculturalidentity?

ConsumerStressIndex,Q32025update

Inrecentyears,theconsumereconomicnarrativehasrefusedtositstill.Therearereportsofadeclining

middleclass,butthecounterargumentssayitisjusta“vibecession.”Consumerspendingappearsresilient,yetmanysaytheyarestruggling.Householdwealth

lookshealthyonpaper,yetcashflowfeelstight.

Bymostdefinitions,themiddleisthinning,real

incomeisflat,andthepathofupwardmobilityis

lengthening.Structurally,housingaffordabilityisstillawall,revolvingbalanceskeepclimbing,andstudentloansandbuy-now,paylater(BNPL)obligationsare

quietlythickeningthemonthlystackofbills.

Psychologically,socialmediafeedshavenormalized“upgradeculture”bywideningboththecomparisonsetandtheexpectationsgap.Stabilityinaggregatemasksstressinpractice.

TheKearneyConsumerInstitute’slatestConsumer

StressIndexshowsthatthisinconsistencyoften

presentsthroughplateausorstagnancy(seefigure1).Forinstance,43percentofconsumerssaytheycanmakechangestolowertheircostofliving,whichhasbeenrelativelystableoverthepastyear,showinga

savvinessonbehalfoftheconsumer.Adaptationhasbecomethedefaultmode.

Adaptationhasbecomethe

defaultmode.

Figure1

Consumerstressisshiftingdifferentlybymarket

ConsumerStressIndex:scorebycountry

DeltatoQ12025

101.3+2.0

100.2+0.197.8

100.2+0.1

101.2+0.899.6

101.2+0.8

86.2–1.6101.2–1.1

99.2+2.5

92.7–0.8

92.7–0.8

91.8–0.3

101.0–1.7

Source:Kearneyanalysis

Middleclass:incomebandorculturalidentity?1

Middleclass:incomebandorculturalidentity?2

Compression,notcollapse?

Affordabilityandmobilityarewritingalong-term

storyaboutthemiddleclass—astoryofless

immediatecollapseandmoreslow-motioncompression.Welcometothe“yes,but”economy,featuringdata

points