A1译24年华数杯国际赛特等奖.docx

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2025-11-05 发布于甘肃
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A1译24年华数杯国际赛特等奖.docx

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Team#2400414 Page

ProblemChosen

2024HSB

MCM/ICM

SummarySheet

TeamControlNumber

MI2400414

ResearchonpowersupplydevelopmenttrendforecastbasedonLCOE

Summary

Duringthe14thFive-YearPlanperiod,itisexpectedthattheinstalledcapacityofphotovoltaicpowerinmycountrywillcontinuetoincreaseduetothereductionofgenerationcostsandthedevelopmentofpowermarkettransactions.ThispaperpresentsacomprehensivestudyonthefuturedevelopmentofphotovoltaicpowergenerationinChina.Itfocusesonfourmainaspects:thedevelopmenttrendofChinaspowersupplyfrom2024to2060,thefeasibilityofphotovoltaicpowerstationsinaspecificregion,thecalculationofthemaximumpowergenerationofphotovoltaicpowergeneration,andstrategicplanningforthesustainabledevelopmentofphotovoltaicpowergenerationinChina.

ForTask1,weconstructanindicatorsystemthataffectstheelectricitysupplyinChina.WebeginbycollectingdataonsolarPVpowergenerationinChinafrom2010to2024.ThecollectedquantitativedataundergoesdatacleaningbeforeconductingSpearmanrankcorrelationcoefficientandKendallrankcorrelationcoefficientanalysisbasedontheelectricitysupplyindicatorsystemshowninFig.4.TheanalysisrevealsthatElectricitySupplyhasacorrelationcoefficientgreaterthan0.9withInstalledCapacityandUnitInvestmentperInstalledCapacity,indicatingadirectimpactonChinaselectricitysupply.Thispaperutilizesthelevelizedcostofelectricity(LCOE)topredictthefuturetrendofelectricitysupply.Figure5illustratestheimpactoffittingthegrowthpathofsolarPVelectricitysupply.TheestimationforChinassolarelectricitysupplyin2060isover1,200megawatts.

Fortask2,analyzethefeasibilityoftheareaforbuildingphotovoltaicpowerplants.Basedonthelocationinformationprovidedabove,thelocationanddatadistributionofphotovoltaicpowerstations