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ProblemChosen2024HSBTeamControlNumber
MCM/ICM
BMI2400414
SummarySheet
ResearchonpowersupplydevelopmenttrendforecastbasedonLCOE
Summary
Duringthe14thFive-YearPlanperiod,itisexpectedthattheinstalledcapacityofphotovol-
taicpowerinmycountrywillcontinuetoincreaseduetothereductionofgenerationcostsandthe
developmentofpowermarkettransactions.Thispaperpresentsacomprehensivestudyonthefu-
turedevelopmentofphotovoltaicpowergenerationinChina.Itfocusesonfourmainaspects:the
developmenttrendofChinaspowersupplyfrom2024to2060,thefeasibilityofphotovoltaic
powerstationsinaspecificregion,thecalculationofthemaximumpowergenerationofphotovol-
taicpowergeneration,andstrategicplanningforthesustainabledevelopmentofphotovoltaic
powergenerationinChina.
ForTask1,weconstructanindicatorsystemthataffectstheelectricitysupplyinChina.We
beginbycollectingdataonsolarPVpowergenerationinChinafrom2010to2024.Thecollected
quantitativedataundergoesdatacleaningbeforeconductingSpearmanrankcorrelationcoefficient
andKendallrankcorrelationcoefficientanalysisbasedontheelectricitysupplyindicatorsystem
showninFig.4.TheanalysisrevealsthatElectricitySupplyhasacorrelationcoefficientgreater
than0.9withInstalledCapacityandUnitInvestmentperInstalledCapacity,indicatingadirect
impactonChinaselectricitysupply.Thispaperutilizesthelevelizedcostofelectricity(LCOE)to
predictthefuturetrendofelectricitysupply.Figure5illustratestheimpactoffittingthegrowth
pat
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