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TheRoleofaStabilizing

ExpenditureRuleinFostering

Macro-FiscalStability

Simulation-BasedEvidencefromPoland

AndrzejTorój,JoannaBęza-Bojanowska,RafałChmura,

KareemIsmail,DominikaKroschel,W.RaphaelLam,Agnieszka

Szczypińska,BartłomiejWiśnicki

WP/25/238

IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchin

progressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedto

elicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.

TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersare

thoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarily

representtheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,

orIMFmanagement.

2025

NOV

©2025InternationalMonetaryFundWP/25/238

IMFWorkingPaper

EuropeanDepartment

TheRoleofaStabilizingExpenditureRuleinFosteringMacro-FiscalStability:Simulation-Based

EvidencefromPoland*

PreparedbyAndrzejTorój,JoannaBęza-Bojanowska,RafałChmura,KareemIsmail,Dominika

Kroschel,W.RaphaelLam,AgnieszkaSzczypińska,BartłomiejWiśnicki

AuthorizedfordistributionbyGeoffGottlieb

November2025

IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicit

commentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseofthe

author(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.

ABSTRACT:ThepaperinvestigatesthepropertiesofPoland’sStabilizingExpenditureRule(SER)inthe

contextofeconomicgovernancereformintheEU.Theanalysisusesagranularmacroeconometricmodel

(Chmuraetal.,2024)thatincorporatesheterogeneousfiscalmultipliersacrossexpenditureitemsand