概率论基础:不确定性与统计方法概述.pdfVIP

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概率论基础:不确定性与统计方法概述.pdf

ProbabilitiesandStatistics

Chapter1

MengmengGuo(GMM)SWUFE

16.09.2014

1Introduction

Wehearabout”uncertainty”almosteverywhere.Literallyitmeansthatthe

resultisnotknownforsure(inadvance).Itappliestomanysimpleexamp

(tossingacoin,drawingacard,etc.),morecomplicatedobjects(asoccergame,

nextyear’sGDP,etc.),andalsothingsthatalreadyhappenedbutnotprecisely

observed(acriminalscene,thedem

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