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ProbabilitiesandStatistics
Chapter1
MengmengGuo(GMM)SWUFE
16.09.2014
1Introduction
Wehearabout”uncertainty”almosteverywhere.Literallyitmeansthatthe
resultisnotknownforsure(inadvance).Itappliestomanysimpleexamp
(tossingacoin,drawingacard,etc.),morecomplicatedobjects(asoccergame,
nextyear’sGDP,etc.),andalsothingsthatalreadyhappenedbutnotprecisely
observed(acriminalscene,thedem
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