2026年全球新能源车销量展望报告-2025-12-新能源.pdfVIP

vestmentconsultingbusinessqualification：CSRCLicense[2012]No.669

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号

中信期货国际化研究|CITICFuturesInternationalResearch2025-12-15

NewEnergyVehicleAnnualOutlook

2026年全球新能源车销量展望

孙泽宇ZhangMohan从业资格号QualificationNo：投资咨询号ConsultingNo.：Z0020317

张默涵ZhangMohan从业资格号QualificationNo：投资咨询号ConsultingNo.：Z0020317

桂晨曦GuiChenxi从业资格号QualificationNo：F3023159投资咨询号ConsultingNo.：Z0013632

CITICFuturesInternationalServicePlatform：

Abstract摘要

In2025,China’sdomesticsalesofnewenergyvehicles(NEV)metexpectations,whileexport

performanceremainedstrong,andNEVshavebecomethemaindriverofChina’sautoexports.As

domesticsubsidieshavegraduallyretrenched,theoverallgrowthrateofNEVshasslowed.China’sNEV

passengervehiclewholesalesalesareprojectedtoreach17.47millionunitsin2026,up14%YoY.

Meanwhile,themarketstructuresofEuropeandtheU.S.haveshownsomedivergence.InEurope,the

resumptionofsubsidiesacrosscountrieshasledtoamarginalrecoveryintheEVmarket;EuropeanNEV

salesareexpectedtohit4.08millionunitsin2026,a20%YoYincrease.IntheU.S.,theremovalof

subsidiesandtariffadjustmentshavejointlypushedupvehiclepurchasecosts.U.S.NEVsalesare

forecasttoreach1.67millionunitsin2026(YoY+3%).

Insummary,globalNEVsalesareprojectedtohit23.65millionunitsin2026(YoY+16%).

Correspondingly,powerbatteryoutputisestimatedtoreach1,635GWh(YoY+24%),translatingtoa

lithiumcarbonatedemandofapproximately1.25milliontons.

Risks：MacroPolicy,GeopoliticalEvent

2025年中国新能源车内销符合预期，出口端表现优异，新能源成为汽车出口主力。国内补贴逐步退坡，

总体增速有所放缓，预测2026年中国新能源乘用车批发销量至1747万辆，同比增长14%。欧美市场格局

则有所分化，欧洲各国补贴重启，欧洲电动车市场迎来边际复苏，预期2026年欧洲新能源车销