苹果增长机遇与风险分析：七年领跑市场.pdfVIP

February11,2010

A.M.(Toni)Sacconaghi,Jr.(SeniorAnalyst)•sacconaghi@•

MitR.Shah•mit.shah@•

EricC.Garfunkel,CFA•eric.garfunkel@•

Apple:DimensioningApplesIncrementalGrowth

Opportunities...andDownsideRisks

2/10/2010TTMCashEPSP/E

ClosingTargetRel.

TickerRatingCURPricePricePerf.2009A2010E2011E2009A2010E2011EYield

AAPLOUSD195.12250.0070.3%9.0811.6712.7221.516.715.3NA

SPX1068.1360.9878.6295.1017.513.611.22.2%

O–Outperform,M–Market-Perform,U–Underperform,N–NotRated

Highlights

•ApplesearningshavegrownbyastaggeringCAGRof88%overthelast7years,significantly

outpacingthe3%growthgeneratedbytheSPXoverthattimeframe.However,astrongrecovery

forcyclicalsisleadingbottoms-upEPSestimatesfortheSPtooutpaceAppleoverthenext2

years(26%CAGRfortheSPvs.14%forApple).Thatsaid,wenotethatconsensushaswoefully

underestimatedApplesearningsgrowthhistorically.Ouranalysisindicatesthatonaverageoverthe

last8years,consensusestimatesatthebeginningofaFYhaveunderestimatedApplesearningsby24%

forthatyear,andby51%forearningstwoyearsout.Lookedatanotherway,ifhistoryisanindi