华数杯国际赛特等奖论文B题优秀论文-2.pdfVIP

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BMI00302

SummarySheet

ResearchonSocialStabilityRiskAssessmentbasedonDecisionTrees

Summary

Thinkingofdangerintimesofpeace,measuringandwarningsocialstability,hasalways

beenhighlyvaluedbyfar-sightedrulersandpoliticians.Socialunrestorcollapsethroughpeace-

ful,nonviolentregimechangecampaigns.Thepurposeofthisreportistobuildasocialstability

riskassessmentmodeltoevaluatethereasonsforthefailureofcolorrevolutions,hopingtomake

ascientificanalysisintermsofthelawsofsocialcrisisearlywarningandprovidesomesugges-

tionstoavoidcolorrevolutions.

Fortask1,Constructsocialstabilityindicatorsystem.First,thedataofsocialstability

indicatorsfrom1980to2020werecollectedtoqualitativelyanalyzethecausalrelationshipof

socialstability,andthecompositionrelationshipofsocialstabilityindicatorsisshowninFigure

2.Then,thecollectedquantitativedataweredatacleanedandthesixindicatorsforqualitative

analysiswereassignedbyAHP.Theimportanceindicatorswereselectedforclusteranalysis,and

thepreliminaryindexsystemisshowninFigure5.Next,correlationsbetweensocialstability

factorswereanalyzedusingcorrelationcoefficients.ThecorrelationheatmapisshowninFigure

7.Finally,KendallsWtestwasusedtotestthecorrelationofsocialstabilityfactors,andthe

resultsareshowninTable6,whichindicatesthatthesignificancevalueoftheoveralldatais

0.000,thedegreeofcorrelationisahighdegreeofconsistency.

Fortask2,BasedonthesocialindicatorsystemofTask1,asocialstabilityearlywarning