短期与长期济周期：波动、增长与技术革新.pptxVIP

DEMANDINTHELONGRUNPopulationandTechnology

Population

ShortandLongCyclesShort-termfluctuations-businesscycle.Concernedwithshort-termchangesinGDPduetointernalandexternalshockstotheeconomy.Usuallyannualoryear-on-yeardata.CoveredbymacroeconomicmodelsliketheAggregateDemand-AggregateSupplymodel.Long-termchanges–long-runrateofeconomicgrowth.ConcernedwiththeevolutionofGDPovertime.Longcyclesaredrivenbythespreadofmajortechnologicalinnovationssuchassteam,chemicals,electricity,cars,planes,computersandtheinternet.Nowthebignewthingisadditivemanufacturing(thethirdmanufacturingrevolution?)SometimesknownasKondratieffcyclesorwaves,over60years.

KondratieffWaves

WavesofInnovationFirstwave1785-1845,60yearsWaterpower,textiles,iron,navigation,bankingSecondwave1845-1900,55yearsSteampower,railways,steel,chemistry,stockmarketsThirdwave1900-1950,50yearsElectricity,chemicals,automobiles,planes,physics,corporationsFourthwave1950-1990,40yearsComputers,software,aerospace,containerisation,telecommunications,biologyandmedicine,multinationalsFifthwave1990-2020,30yearsInternetandweb2,mobileandwirelesstech,medicaltechnology,genetics,venturecapital

OverlappingWaves

OfficePropertyVariableswhichinfluencesupplyanddemandintheofficepropertymarketare:Whitecollaremployment(demandproxybutbyfarthemostimportantindicator).Shifttoserviceindustriesastheeconomyrestructuresandgoespost-industrial.CBDlocationlessimportantascampus,businessparkandmixedusedevelopmentsproliferate.Mobileworkforce,hotdeskingandtele-working,ABW,projectteamsandotherhybridorganisationalforms.Financefornewconstruction.

IndustrialPropertyEconomicvariableswhichdrivedemandandsupplyintheindustrialpropertymarketare:Overallgrowthindomesticdemandandoverseasdemandformanufacturedexports.Industrialproductiongrowthan