美国安全与新兴技术中心：2025人工智能对网络空间攻防平衡的影响研究报告（英文版）.pdfVIP

PolicyBrief

AnticipatingAI’s

Impactonthe

CyberOffense-

DefenseBalance

Author

AndrewJ.Lohn

May2025

ExecutiveSummary

Thecyberdomaintouchesnearlyallsystemsandaspectsofsociety,soanychangesto

therelativeoffense-defensebalanceincybercouldbeveryimpactful.Asadigital

technology,AIcanbeexpectedtohaveamoredirecteffectonthosebalancesthanin

otherdomains.

ToassesshowAImayaffecttheoffense-defensebalancewithincyber,wecollected

argumentsforanoffensiveordefensivebiasinvariousaspectsofcyberoperationsas

wellasargumentsforwhatgivescyberitsuniquecharacter.Wethenconsideredhow

varyinglevelsofAIadvancementmightstrengthen,weaken,oralterthosearguments.

Theresultsofthatanalysisaregroupedintofivecategories:ChangestotheDigital

Ecosystem,HardeningDigitalEnvironments,TacticalAspectsofDigitalEngagements,

IncentivesandOpportunities,andStrategicEffectsonConflictandCrisis.

ThereisnosingleanswertothequestionofwhetherAIwillmakecyberoffenseor

defensedominant.Cyberattackersanddefendershavetoomanydifferentgoalsthat

canbeachievedinmultipleways,butAIislikelytochangethecyberlandscapein

waysthatcanbepredictedandperhapscontrolledtosomeextent.

AlthoughAIwillincreasethescopeofdefensivetasksbymakingthedigitalecosystem

largerandmorecomplex,itmayalsoreducethescopeofdefensivetasksinother

ways,suchasbydecreasingthenumberofnetworkconnectionstomonitor.AI

systemscouldreplaceknownhumanweaknesses,butAIcomponentsareoften

vulnerable.AIcomponentscouldalsoaggregatetoomuchinformationorcontrolinto

high-riskdigitaltargets,andeliminatingmanualcontrolscouldreduceresilienceduring

attacks.Assystemdesigners,acquisitionofficials,andusersincorporateorimplement

AI,theywilldecide