高盛中国：中国的三件事-260215.pdfVIP

EconomicsResearch

15February2026|7:00PMHKT

China:ThreethingsinChina

ThreequickhighlightsfromChina:HuiShan

+852-2978-6634|hui.shan@

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

nHigherPPIinlation:China’sCPIinlationdecreasedfrom0.8%yoyinDecember

to0.2%yoyinJanuary,primarilyduetodistortionsfromthelater-than-usual

LunarNewYear.WestillexpectheadlineCPIinlationtoaverage0.6%in2026.

China’sPPIinlationrosefrom-1.9%yoyinDecemberto-1.4%yoyinJanuary,

relectinghigherrawmaterialcosts.IncorporatingtheJanuarydataand

increasedcommodityprices,wehaverevisedour2026full-yearPPIinlation

forecastfrom-0.7%to-0.5%,whichisfurtherabovetheconsensusexpectation

of-1.0%.

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O

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N.nStrongcurrentaccount:Q4BalanceofPaymentsdatashowedasigniicant

I

AincreaseinChina’scurrentaccountsurplus,makinganewhighofUS$242billion.

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IThisresultraisedthe2025full-yearcurrentaccountsurplusto3.7%ofGDPand

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Nmechanicallyincreasedour2026forecastto4.3%ofGDP(upfrom4.1%).

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G.Additionally,ourpreferredFXlowsmeasureindicatedrobustnetinlowsof

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EUS$94billioninJanuary.StrongcurrentaccountandFXinlowscontributedto

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EongoingRMBappreciation:USDCNYreached6.90lastweek,andwemaintain

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fo