高盛中国:中国的三件事-260215.pdfVIP

  • 0
  • 0
  • 约5.34万字
  • 约 6页
  • 2026-02-26 发布于北京
  • 举报

EconomicsResearch

15February2026|7:00PMHKT

China:ThreethingsinChina

ThreequickhighlightsfromChina:HuiShan

+852-2978-6634|hui.shan@

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

nHigherPPIinlation:China’sCPIinlationdecreasedfrom0.8%yoyinDecember

to0.2%yoyinJanuary,primarilyduetodistortionsfromthelater-than-usual

LunarNewYear.WestillexpectheadlineCPIinlationtoaverage0.6%in2026.

China’sPPIinlationrosefrom-1.9%yoyinDecemberto-1.4%yoyinJanuary,

relectinghigherrawmaterialcosts.IncorporatingtheJanuarydataand

increasedcommodityprices,wehaverevisedour2026full-yearPPIinlation

forecastfrom-0.7%to-0.5%,whichisfurtherabovetheconsensusexpectation

of-1.0%.

M

O

C

N.nStrongcurrentaccount:Q4BalanceofPaymentsdatashowedasigniicant

I

AincreaseinChina’scurrentaccountsurplus,makinganewhighofUS$242billion.

M

T

IThisresultraisedthe2025full-yearcurrentaccountsurplusto3.7%ofGDPand

B

@

Nmechanicallyincreasedour2026forecastto4.3%ofGDP(upfrom4.1%).

I

J

G.Additionally,ourpreferredFXlowsmeasureindicatedrobustnetinlowsof

N

EUS$94billioninJanuary.StrongcurrentaccountandFXinlowscontributedto

H

C

EongoingRMBappreciation:USDCNYreached6.90lastweek,andwemaintain

K

fo

文档评论(0)

1亿VIP精品文档

相关文档