阿尔及利亚宏观经济预测模型（AMPM）.pdfVIP

AlgeriaMacroeconomic

ProjectionModel(AMPM)

MustaphaAbderrahim,RiadMansouri,FatmaZohraOuail,

SaraAbadi,KenzaElkrim,Mohamed-FarizZidane,

PhilippeKaram,GyorgyMolnar,KarelMusil,ValeriuNalban

WP/26/25

IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchin

progressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedto

elicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.

TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersare

thoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarily

representtheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,

orIMFmanagement.

2026

FEB

©2026InternationalMonetaryFundWP/26/25

IMFWorkingPaper

InstituteforCapacityDevelopment

AlgeriaMacroeconomicProjectionModel(AMPM)

PreparedbyMustaphaAbderrahim,RiadMansouri,FatmaZohraOuail,SaraAbadi,KenzaElkrim,

Mohamed-FarizZidane,PhilippeKaram,GyorgyMolnar,KarelMusil,ValeriuNalban*

AuthorizedfordistributionbyNatanEpstein

February2026

IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicit

commentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseofthe

author(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.

ABSTRACT:ThepaperdescribesQMPM,theQuarterlyProjectionModelfortheBankofAlgeriathat

underpinstheBank’sForecastingandPolicyAnalysisSystem.Themodelisdesignedtocapturethekey

featuresoftheeconomy,includingtheimportanceofthehydrocarbonsector,sizablefiscalpolicyimpacts,

monetary-fiscalinteractions,amonetaryaggregatetargetingpolicyframework,andamanagedexchangerate

regime.Model-basedanalyticalex