2028年全球智能危机.docxVIP

THE2028GLOBALINTELLIGENCECRISIS

AThoughtExerciseinFinancialHistory,fromtheFuture

FEB23,2026

Preface

WhatifourAIbullishnesscontinuestoberight...andwhatifthat’sactuallybearish?

Whatfollowsisascenario,notaprediction.Thisisn’tbearpornorAIdoomerfan-fiction.Thesoleintentofthispieceismodelingascenariothat’sbeenrelativelyunderexplored.OurfriendAlapShahposedthe

question,andtogetherwebrainstormedtheanswer.Wewrotethispart,andhe’swrittentwoothersyoucanfindhere.

Hopefully,readingthisleavesyoumorepreparedforpotentiallefttailrisksasAImakestheeconomyincreasinglyweird.

ThisistheCitriniResearchMacroMemofromJune2028,detailingtheprogressionandfalloutoftheGlobalIntelligenceCrisis.

MacroMemo

TheConsequencesofAbundantIntelligence

CitriniResearch

,June30th,2028

Theunemploymentrateprinted10.2%thismorning,a0.3%upside

surprise.Themarketsoldoff2%onthenumber,bringingthecumulativedrawdownintheSPto38%fromitsOctober2026highs.

Tradershavegrownnumb.Sixmonthsago,aprintlikethiswouldhavetriggeredacircuitbreaker.

Twoyears.That’sallittooktogetfrom“contained”and“sector-specific”toaneconomythatnolongerresemblestheoneanyofusgrewupin.

Thisquarter’smacromemoisourattempttoreconstructthesequence-apost-mortemonthepre-crisiseconomy.

Theeuphoriawaspalpable.ByOctober2026,theSP500flirtedwith8000,theNasdaqbrokeabove30k.Theinitialwaveoflayoffsdueto

humanobsolescencebeganinearly2026,andtheydidexactlywhat

layoffsaresupposedto.Marginsexpanded,earningsbeat,stocksrallied.Record-settingcorporateprofitswerefunneledrightbackintoAI

compute.

Theheadlinenumberswerestillgreat.NominalGDPrepeatedlyprintedmid-to-highsingle-digitannualizedgrowth.Productivitywasbooming.

Realoutputperhourroseatratesnotseensincethe1950s,drivenbyAIagentsth