2026-2027年全球经济展望报告逼近极限（英文）-.docxVIP

Economicoutlook2026-27:Stretchingthelimits

17December2025

AllianzResearch

AllianzResearch

2

Content

4

ExecutiveSummary

9

Globaloutlook:Exceedingpreviousexpectationsbutdownsiderisksremain

12

Inflationandcentralbanks:divergenceahead

14

Developedmarkets:runningontwospeeds

16

Emergingmarkets:selectivityafterayearofrally

19

Corporates:Earningstocontinuetogrowamidfragmentationandcapexdivergence

28

Capitalmarketsoutlook:Resiliencedespitelate-cycleconditions

3

17December2025

Executive

Summary

LudovicSubran

ChiefInvestmentOfficerChiefEconomist

ludovic.subran@

JordiBascoCarrera

HeadofPrivateMarketsInvestmentStrategy

jordi.basco_carrera@

AnaBoata

HeadofEconomicResearch

ana.boata@

MaximeDarmetCucchiarini

SeniorEconomistforUK,USFrance

maxime.darmet@

LluisDalmauTaules

EconomistforAfricaMiddleEast

lluis.dalmau@

GuillaumeDejean

SeniorSectorAdvisor

guillaume.dejean@

BjoernGriesbach

HeadofMacroeconomicandCapitalMarketsResearch

bjoern.griesbach@

JasminGr?schl

SeniorEconomistforEurope

jasmin.groeschl@

MichaelHeilmann

SeniorInvestmentStrategist

michael.heilmann@

AmericaHernandez

SeniorInvestmentStrategist

america.hernandez@

AlexanderHirt

HeadofCreditandEquity

alexander.hirt@

BernhardHirsch

HeadofRatesandEmergingMarkets

bernhard.hirsch@

Fran?oiseHuang

SeniorEconomistforAsiaPacific

francoise.huang@

PatrickKrizan

SeniorInvestmentStrategist

patrick.krizan@

AnoKuhanathan

HeadofCorporateResearch

ano.kuhanathan@

MariaLatorre

SectorAdvisor,B2B

maria.latorre@

?GlobalGDPgrowthremainsstrong...fornow.Itisexpectedtoreach

+2.9%in2026and+2.8%in2027,followingarobust+3%in2025.Carryovergrowthfromastrong2025intheUSandChina,aswellassustained

momentuminthefaceofdisruptions,accountforovertwo-thirdsoftheupwardrevisioncomparedtolastquarter.

?TheUSeconomyisincreasinglyrunningontw