特朗普效应：美国和中国如何推动亚洲工厂的外国直接投资演变（英）-牛津经济研究院-2026-28页.pdfVIP

HINRICH-IMD

SUSTAINABLETRADEINDEX2025

DEEPDIVE

TheTrumpEffect:

HowtheUSandChinaaredriving

FactoryAsia’sFDIevolution

BYTHANGNGUYEN-QUOC,PhD,ANDTHENGTHENGTAN

Contents

EXECUTIVESUMMARY3

1.THESURPRISINGRESILIENCEOFASIA’SFDIUNDERTRUMP2.05

1.1 Asia’s FDI inflows survived higher US tariff exposure 5

1.2 Chinese MNEs kept expanding abroad while others retrenched 7

2.THENEWFACTORYASIARESHAPINGASIA’SFDI8

2.1 Factory Asia started its evolution prior to Trump 2.0 8

2.2 FDI relocating out of China stayed within Asia 9

2.3 China overtook the top spot as Asia’s regional FDI source 11

3.VIMI:THENEWHOTSPOTS13

3.1 Asia’s FDI hotspots 13

3.2 The diversity of FDI models in VIMI 14

4.WHAT’SNEXTFORASIA’SFDI?19

4.1 China’s recent growth in outbound FDI will continue 19