kroll-Kroll经济学见解：中东风险升级对全球能源、贸易和流动性意味着什么.pdfVIP

KrollEconomicInsights

WhatEscalationRiskin

theMiddleEastMeans

forGlobalEnergy,Trade

andMobility

ThesignificantlyalteredsecuritylandscapearoundtheStraitofHormuzhascreated

uncertaintyforenergyflows,maritimetransitandaviation.KrollEconomics,whichhelps

leadersnavigategeopoliticalriskandeconomicuncertainty,hascreatedamodelthat

translatessecuritydevelopmentsintoeconomicshocksandassessestheirimpactonenergy,

transport,tradeandtheglobaleconomy.Theteamalsoexaminestheimplicationsfor

operationaldecision-making.

TheStraitofHormuz

Acriticalconduitforenergyandtrade,theStraitofHormuzconcentratescrudeoil,refinedproducts,LNGandgeneralcargo

flowsintoanarrowmaritimecorridor.Thereislimitedeffectivebypasscapacity.PipelinesinSaudiArabiaandtheUAE,for

example,candivertonlyafractionofnormalHormuzthroughput,accordingtopublicestimates.ChangesintheStrait’s

securityconditionscanthereforehaverapidandfar-reachingimplicationsevenintheabsenceofaformalorsustained

closure.About20millionbarrelsperday—roughlyone-fifthofglobalpetroleumliquidsconsumptionandmorethana

quarterofallseaborneoiltrade—typicallytransittheStraitofHormuzperday.

Beyondenergy,theregionisakeynodeininternationalaviationandlogistics.GulfhubsconnectAsia,EuropeandAfrica,so

conflict-relateddisruptionalsoaffectsairnetworks,freightcapacityandbroadermobility.

Whatisatrisk?

DisruptionaroundtheStraitofHormuzcanresultinreducedtransit,higherfreightandfuelcosts,andunevenaccessto

insurance.Theseimpactscanquicklyerodethepredictabilityonwhichglobalsupplychainsandmobilitynetworksrely.

Delays,reroutingandcostspikes—ratherthanimmediateshortages—arelikelytoensue.

Iftheseissuespersist,theytightenenergyandtradebalances,disruptlogisticsplanningandweakenassumptionsab