[期货]Chapter 9 Fundamental Analysis.pptVIP

Chapter 9Fundamental Analysis The common element in all approaches to fundamental analysis is the study of the purported causes of price increases and price decreases in the hope of ascertaining changes prior to their occurrence. SUPPLY AND DEMAND Anything that decreases supply will tend to raise prices, and anything that increases supply will tend to lower prices. Price and Supply Price and Demand MARKET REPORTS The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) provides a number of very thorough and generally accurate reports on daily, weekly, and monthly price movements. SEASONALITY If we study cash commodity prices over an extended period of time on a month-to-month basis, we find that during certain months of the year price tends to top, whereas during other months price tends to bottom. Monthly seasonal price tendency for corn Weekly Corn Prices Seasonal Tendencies in Futures Prices charting seasonal tendencies of futures prices on a week-to-week or day-to-day basis is more suited to the needs of the short-term trader than is the monthly cash seasonal. CYCLIC PRICE CHANGES The cyclic method of analysis and forecasting has its roots in the work of Edward R. Dewey, founder of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles. Timing Signals Low-High Close High-Low Close Timing Signals on Closing Basis Charts SECULAR TRENDS 长期趋势 Less predictable than seasonal and cycles but significant nevertheless as an influence on prices are price trends resulting from long-term changes in supply and demand. Government Price Support Programs The government is an ever-present but often fickle influence on commodity prices. Political Influences Political decisions anywhere in the world may affect commodity prices significantly. Monthly Futures Copper Prices  OTHER FORCES AND FACTORS AFFECTING COMMODITY PRICES News of war can lead to hoarding as well as to a greater demand for raw materials for defense and stockpil