美国数学建模竞赛特等奖论文——1996 B O The Paper Selection Scheme Simulation Analysis【数学建模】.pdfVIP

The Paper Selection Scheme Simulation Analysis 283 The Paper Selection Scheme Simulation Analysis Zheng Yuan Zhu Jian Liu Haonan Tan Fudan University Shanghai, China Advisor: Yongji Tan Summary We provide five models for selection schemes and, based on computer sim- ulation, we propose optimal schemes for each model. In analyzing the problem, we use a cost function to evaluate a scheme. We quantify a judge’s capability in terms of the variance of accidental error and the magnitude of systematic bias. We enumerate our assumptions and give the algorithm for computer simu- lation. We then discuss the possible ranges of parameters and , finding that the judges’ capability must reach a certain level to accomplish their task. We discuss the five models. The Ideal Model can be used to explain the selection scheme under ideal conditions. The Round-Table Model and the Classic Model produce expensive solutions. To save money, we put forward the Cutoff Model and the Advanced Round-Table Model. The Cutoff Model is based on numerical scoring and rejects papers under a certain cutoff level in each round. Its flexibility on changing the rejection proportion in each round, depending on the capability of the judge, leads to a more economical scheme. The Advanced Round-Table Model is a combination of rank-ordering and numerical scoring; it can generate a scheme that is both economical and easy to operate. We compared all the models (see Table 6). The schemes produced by the Cutoff Model and the Advanced Round-Table Model reduce the expense dras- tically. Later we generalize and find that all models except the Round-Table Model are suitable for different values of , , and . For the purpose of classifying winners to various ranks, the Cutoff Model works best. We find that the expense depends on the capabilities of the judges. A small decrease in