全球金融危机、影子银行，曹勇.pptVIP

更少大型银行，更多小型银行 此次金融风险的重大损失导致大型投行业务量减少，但小型投行将大量涌现。 投行业务的竞争将更加激烈。 投行业务通过商业银行市场销售体系扩展 影子银行与商业银行 减少影子银行的融资，降低财务杠杆 投行商业票据市场将陷入长期低谷 投行将严重依赖商业银行的存款来源融资。 大量投行业务“由公转私” 大型独立的投行经纪业务将逐渐退出市场，取而代之将是大量私人银行，私募和对冲基金 The New Financial Architecture (NFA) and Global Financial Crisis The New Financial Architecture NFA The elimination of the 1930s legislation that segregated commercial banking and the capital markets in 1999 was the culmination of two decades of radical deregulation that created what is often called the ‘New Financial Architecture’ (NFA). The NFA replaced the tightly regulated commercial-bank based financial system of the Golden Age with the lightly regulated capital-market based, globally-integrated financial system we have today. The NFA’s theoretical foundation The NFA is founded on the core belief embodied in modern mainstream financial economics that unregulated capital markets are “efficient” in that security prices always correctly reflect their true risk-return dimensions. The neoclassical models of financial markets Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and Options Pricing Theory, Joint hypothesis: all agents know all information relevant to the pricing of securities – they have ‘rational’ or correct expectations of the future cash flows that will emanate from all securities; Competitive markets generate ‘optimal’ equilibrium security prices created by decisions that maximize agent preference functions. The most important deduction from modern financial markets theory is that markets always price risk correctly as long as governments do not distort financial decision making through regulation. The NFA policy If agents know the correct price of risk, they cannot be induced to hold more (or less) risk than is optimal for them. Hence, there is little need for government intervention. The NFA embodies light regulation of commercial banks, minimal regulation of investment banks, and the virtual non-regulation of increasingly powerful nonbank financial instituti