2012-0005editing基于主成分分析法的煤与瓦斯突出危险性评价及模型建立.docVIP

文章编号： 基于主成分分析法的煤与瓦斯突出危险性评价及模型建立 秦毅1，杨胜强1,2，严家成1，马旭东1 (1.中国矿业大学 安全工程学院,江苏 徐州 221008;2.中国矿业大学 煤炭资源与安全开采国家重点实验室,江苏 徐州 221008) 摘要：为了避免煤与瓦斯突出危险性评价各因素之间的重叠，为客观、准确评价煤与瓦斯突出危险性提供依据。利用主成分分析法，结合煤与瓦斯突出危险性各影响因素之间的关系，以贵州典型突出矿井各影响因素原始数据为依据，将不同量纲原始数据进行标准化处理，使各影响因素组合为几个不相关的综合指标。最大限度保留原有指标的基础上，降维简化为3个互不相关的综合指标，建立了煤与瓦斯突出危险性评价的数学模型，并对该模型进行了精确度和实用性检测，结果表明该模型能够准确地评价煤与瓦斯突出危险性。 关键词：煤与瓦斯突出；主成分分析；不同量纲；综合指标；危险性评价；数学模型 中图分类号：TD713 文献标志码：A Risk Assessment of Coal and Gas Outburst Based on Principal Component Analysis and Model Establishment QIN Yi1, YANG Sheng-qiang1,2, YAN Jia-cheng1， MA Xu-dong1 (1.School of Safety Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology，Xuzhou 221008，ChinaKey Laboratory of Coal Resources and Safety Mining, China University of Mining and Technology，Xuzhou 221008，ChinaAbstract: In order to avoid overlap of coal and gas outburst risk assessment between the factors, as objective and accurate evaluation of coal and gas outburst provide a basis. Using the principal component analysis and combining with the relationship between various factors, normalizing the original date of different dimensionless from Guizhou typical outburst mine, factors are combined several unrelated comprehensive index. Through dimensionality reduction，it reduced to three unrelated composite index based on keeping the original index maximally. And the same times, established the mathematical model，and the detected the accuracy and practicality, the results show that the model can accurately assessment the risk of coal and gas outburst。 Key words: coal and gas outburst; principal component analysis; different dimensionless; comprehensive index; risk assessment; mathematical model. 煤与瓦斯突出作为一种极其复杂的瓦斯动力现象[]，随着煤矿开采深度的增加，煤与瓦斯突出危险性也随之增加。因此，对煤与瓦斯突出危险性作出客观、准确评价对防治煤与瓦斯突出有重要的现实意义。目前，煤与瓦斯突出危险性评价的理论与方法众多，如层次分析-模糊综合评判法[]、灰色关联评价法[]、事故树分析法[]、基于神经网络和遗传算法的评价法[,]等，在这些评价方法中，由于评价指标之间互相存在一定的联系，在分析时造成数据和信息的重叠，很难避免主观性，使得计算过于复杂。针对该问题，本文运用主成分分析法，在最大限度地保留原有指标的基础上，对多维变量进行综合和简化，建立了煤与瓦斯突出危险性评价的数学模型，为客观评价煤与瓦斯突出危险