毕业论文：人民币升值对中国经济的影响1（终稿）.doc

中山大学新华学院 Xinhua College of Sun Yat-sen University 学士学位论文 人民币升值对中国经济的影响 Impact analysis for the Appreciation of RMB on China’s Economy 作者：*** 指 导 老 师：刘 洋 学 科 专 业：国际经济与贸易 学 位 类 型：学士学位 2011年12月 人民币升值对中国经济的影响 摘 要 【中 文 摘 要 】 2005年7月21日，中国开始实行一项新的汇率政策。它是以市场供求基础、参考一篮子货币进行调整、有管理的浮动汇率制度。由于中国实行浮动汇率政策后，人民币对美元的汇率呈现不断升值的趋势。而随着人民币对美元持续升值，对中国经济的发展产生了不同程度的影响，如包括GDP、企业、进出口贸易、就业等方面的影响。本文的研究目的在于通过相关的模型，来分析人民币升值对中国经济的影响。 本文采用可计算的一般均衡理论（CGE）、供求关系原理、马歇尔-勒纳条件、等模型，浅析人民币升值的现状、影响及其面对人民币升值的压力所相应的对策。通过研究，可发现，人民币升值有利于进口，促进贸易结构优化，改善贸易条件，有利于国内部分行业，如房地产、旅游业的发展。同时也存在着各种问题，如不利于出口，对部分行业也造成一定的消极影响，如纺织行业。我国应把人民币汇率控制在一定的范围之内。 【关键字】：人民币升值；宏观经济；一般均衡理论 Impact analysis for the Appreciation of RMB on China’s Economy Abstract 【Abstract】 July21, 2005, China began to implement a new exchange rate system. It’s a managed floating exchange rate system that is based on supply and demand market and with reference to a basket of currencies to adjust. After China has implemented the exchange rate system, the exchange rate of RMB has show a trend of growing. And the RMB to US dollar exchange rate continue to appreciate, it has s an influence on China’s economy. Such as an effect on macrograph economy, enterprise, the trade of imports and exports, job… The paper utilize the general equilibrium theory (CGE), supply and demand principle, Marshall-Lerner conditions,to analyze the current situation and the effect of RMB appreciation, and also has a discussion on the policy of the appreciation of the RMB. Through the study, the RMB have a good impaction on imports, promoting the trade structure, improve the terms of trade, which is beneficial to the domestic partial industry, such as real estate, the development of tourism. Also, there have many problems, such as detrimental to export, partial industry also caused some negative effects, such as textile industry. Our country shou