基于Bootstrap与SVM集成的可靠性评估方法.docVIP

  基于 Bootstrap 与 SVM 集成的可靠性评估 方法# 吴军1，邓超2，熊强强1* 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 （1. 华中科技大学船舶与海洋工程学院，武汉 430074； 2. 华中科技大学数字制造与装备国家重点实验室，武汉 430074） 摘要：可靠性是影响国产数控装备市场占有率与竞争力的关键因素之一，而可靠性评估是一 种对数控装备可靠性进行定量化控制的必要手段。针对传统的可靠性评估方法应用于数控装 备时遇到的非线性与准确度低等问题，提出了一种适用于小子样情况的数控装备可靠性评估 新方法。综合采用 Bootstrap 和 SVM 等方法建立了小子样条件下的可靠性评估模型，给出了 可靠性评估全过程的 UML 序列图，并进行了实例仿真分析。结果表明该方法能够较好地解 决小子样条件下可靠性评估遇到的非线性和评估准确度低等问题，并能够给出可靠性评估结 果的可信性度量。 关键词：数控装备；可靠性评估；点估计；置信区间 中图分类号：TH17 A Novel Reliability Assessment Method Based on Bootstrap and SVM Wu Jun1, Deng Chao2, Xiong Qiangqiang1 (1. School of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, WuHan 430074; 2. State Key Laboratory of Digital Manufacturing Equipment and Technology, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, WuHan 430074) Abstract: The reliability level of machine tools made in China is a key factor in increasing the market share and competitive strength of the machine tools. As it is known, reliability assessment is a necessary method to quantitatively control the reliability level of the machine tools. For traditional methods applied to assess machine tool reliability assessment had problems with nonlinear and low accuracy, a novel machine tool reliability assessment method based on Bootstrap and SVM was proposed in this paper. First of all, the reliability assessment models for point estimation and confidence interval were respectively set up when only small sample may be obtained. A sequence diagram of unified modeling language was adopted to describe the whole process of machine tool reliability assessment. Finally, a case was implemented by simulation analysis to validate the method. It was shown that the nonlinear and low accuracy encountered in classic machine tool reliability assessment might be solved by using the method proposed in this paper when only small sample was obtained. Keywords: Machine tool; Reliability assessment; Point estimation; Confidence interval 0 引言 数控装备，特别是重点装备，一旦发生故障而