2030年美国电动车市场预测.pdf

Electric Vehicles in the United States A New Model with Forecasts to 2030 Center for Entrepreneurship Technology (CET) Technical Brief Number: 2009.1.v.2.0 Revision Date: August 24, 2009 Thomas A. Becker (tbecker@), Ikhlaq Sidhu (PI), Burghardt Tenderich Center for Entrepreneurship Technology Contents Introduction 1 Part 1: Modeling Consumer Adoption 2 1. Network Externalities and a Comparison of Costs 3 1.1. Network Operators and Switchable Batteries 3 1.2. Economic Model 5 1.3. Internal Combustion Car Costs 5 1.4. Electric Car Costs 7 2. Model of Adoption 11 2.1. Regional Deployment and Fleet Mix 13 Part 2: Macroeconomic Impacts 15 1. Trade Balance 16 2. Capital Expenditures 19 3. Employment 21 4. Health and Environment 22 5. Greenhouse Gas Emissions 23 6. Government Policy 24 Conclusion 25 References 27 Appendix 30 Biography 32 About UC Berkeley Center for Entrepreneurship Technology 32 Center for Entrepreneurship Technology University of California, Berkeley Center for Entrepreneurship Technology Summary of Findings This paper was commissioned by the Center for Entrepreneurship and Technology at the University of California, Berkeley. It estimates the rate of market adoption of electric vehicles in the United States through 2030 and analyzes the impact of electric car deployment on the trade balance, business invest- ment, employment, health care costs,