基于因子分析的青海省水资源承载力综合评价.pdfVIP

第29卷第1期 水摇 资摇 源摇 保摇 护 2013年1月 Vol.29 No.1 WATER RESOURCES PROTECTION Jan. 2013 DOI:10.3969/ j.issn.1004 6933.2013.01.006 基于因子分析的青海省水资源承载力综合评价 吴摇 琼 (北京世纪农丰土地科技有限公司,北京摇 100083) 摘要:运用因子分析法从时间的角度对青海省水资源承载力进行综合评价。 结果表明:影响青海省 水资源承载力的3 大因子分别为人口、经济和消费因子,水资源供给能力和工业用水因子,耗水量 和农业用水因子;2002—2009年,青海省的水资源承载力整体上呈稳步增长的趋势,但在2009 年 有所回落,预测青海省水资源承载力会继续呈上升的发展趋势。 探讨提高青海省水资源承载力的 方法和措施:进一步加强水利工程建设,充分挖掘水资源的开发潜力,提高水利工程的蓄水保水能 力,并转变原有经济发展模式,优化产业结构。 关键词:水资源承载力;因子分析法;驱动因子;青海省 中图分类号:TV213摇 摇 摇 文献标志码:A摇 摇 摇 文章编号:1004 6933(2013)01 0022 05 Comprehensive evaluation of carrying capacity of water resources of Qinghai Province based on factor analysis WU Qiong (Beijing SJNF Land Science Technology Co. ,Ltd,Beijing 100083,China) Abstract:The method of factor analysis was used to evaluate the carrying capacity of water resources of Qinghai Province fromatemporalview. Theresultsshowthatthepopulation,economic,andconsumptionfactors;thewater supply capacity andindustrialwaterfactors;andthewaterconsumptionandagriculturalwaterfactorsarethreemain factors affecting the carryingcapacity ofwaterresourcesof QinghaiProvince. Duringtheperiodfrom2002 to2009, the overall carrying capacity of water resources in Qinghai Province improved steadily,except for a fluctuation in 2009. It is predicted that the water resources carrying capacity will have an increasing trend in the future. The methods and measures of enhancing thewater resources carrying capacity are discussed,including strengthening of hydraulic engineering construction,enhancement of water resources exploitation,improvement of water storage and preservation capacity,transformation of the original economic development pattern,and optim