基于组合预测的航空发电机寿命预测研究 测控技术与仪器毕业设计论文.docVIP

基于组合预测的航空发电机寿命预测研究 学 院 自动化学院 专 业 班 级 学 号 姓 名 指导教师 负责教师 沈阳航空2010年6月摘 要 。关键词：；；Air generator is one of the key components of aircraft,flight once malfunction can lead to news,cause great losses. To ensure the flight safety, timely find fault, reduce accidents, reduce loss, require further study aviation generator life prediction method. But because of a single forecasting method often prediction accuracy is low, hard to meet the practical prediction requirements forecasting accuracy. Therefore, this paper puts forward a kind of combination forecast method, combining relevant knowledge, using the weighted combination forecast model of air generator life prediction. This paper discusses the gray theory, support vector machines, the grey forecast method of neural network, three basic theory, key research gray neural network model and combination forecast model establishment and the prediction process. In the deep analysis of air generator based on the relevance of performance parameters, combining the working environment, the characteristics and the influence factors, and designed a kind of combination forecast of air generator based on the prediction method, and the prediction model of air generator design ideas, frame structure, the improved algorithm of detail, completed based on combination forecast of air generator life prediction of design, and verifies the effectiveness of the method. This combination forecast method is based on the matlab platform building and implementation. Keywords: air generator; gray theory; support vector machine; gray neural network; combination forecast 目 录 1 绪论 1 1.1 选题背景及意义 1 1.2 研究目的和意义 4 1.3 课题内容及安排 4 2 灰色系统预测模型 6 2.1 灰色系统概述 6 2.1.1 灰色系统理论 6 2.1.2 灰色系统建模机理 7 2.2 灰色MGM（1，n）模型 8 2.3 本章小结 10 3 支持向量机预测模型 11 3.1 支持向量机概述 11 3.1.1 支持向量机理论 11 3.1.2 支持向量机建模机理 12 3.2 支持向量回归机模型 13 3.3 本章小结 16 4 灰色神经网络预测模型 17 4.1 灰色神经网络概述 17 4.1.1 神经网络理论 17 4.1.2 神经网络模型建模机理 18 4.1.3 BP网络模型 18 4.2 灰色神经网络预测模型 21 4.3 本章小结 23 5 组合预测模型 24 5.1 组