国际石油价格上涨对中国经济的影响.docVIP

中文摘要 石油作为重要的基础性资源，已经渗透到当今社会、经济、生产、生活的各个方面。因此，石油价格的变动，对我国国民经济各行业都将产生影响。近年来石油价格不断上涨，并呈现阶段性、次第攀升的上涨模式，突发事件引发世界石油市场剧烈波动，反季节变化现象增多，名义价格和实际价格的差距拉大等特点。石油价格虽然在近期有所回落，但从长期供需来看石油价格在未来仍将不断增长。石油价格上涨已给我国带来诸多不利影响。我国已成为世界第二大石油进口国，对石油的过分依赖不得不引起我们的重视。本文通过在石油价格的长期走势以及石油价格变化对我国影响的分析的基础上提出了相应对策。 【关键词】 石油价格 世界经济 中国石油安全 Abstract Nowadays, petroleum, as the important fundamental resource, has seeped to many aspects of society, economy, production, and life. Therefore, the fluctuation of petroleum price will have an influence to each profession in our national economy. In recent years, the consistent rise of petroleum price took on a new rise pattern of phasing and grading climb. Some sudden events brought about some new characteristics, such as the fierce fluctuation of the world oil market, the increase of counter-seasonal variation phenomenon, and the enlarged disparity between the nominal price and the actual price. In a long term, although the petroleum price has recently receded, it still seems to grow continuously judging from the long-term supply and demand. The rise of petroleum price has brought many disadvantageous effects to our country. Since we have become the second biggest petroleum import country in the world, the excessive dependence on petroleum must arouse our concerns. The thesis will give some countermeasures on the basis of the analysis of the long-term trend of petroleum price and the influences caused by the change of petroleum price to our country. 【Key Words】Petroleum price International economy Safe of Chinese petroleum resources 目 录 1 近年国际石油价格变动走势概述 2 1.1近期石油价格走势 2 1.2 近年国际油价变动主要表现特征 3 2 石油价格影响因素分析 3 2.1. 世界石油市场的需求因素分析 4 2.2世界石油市场的供给因素分析 5 2.3 世界石油市场存在的不确定因素分析 7 3 未来石油价格走势预测 8 3.1 石油价格未来走势特点 8 3.2 石油价格预测分析 9 4 国际石油价格上涨对中国经济的影响 10 4.1 减缓经济增长速度 12 4.2 加剧通货膨胀压力 13 4.3缩小贸易顺差 13 4.4企业成本上升，国际竞争力下降 13 5 我国应对高油价须采取的措施 14 5.1 调整经济结构，转变增长方式，降低对石油的依赖 14 5.2 努力降低能耗，提高能源利用率 14 5.3 加快国家石油储备体系的建设步伐 14 5.4 积极开发新能源和可再生能源 15 5.5 改善石油定价机制 15 参考文献 16 致 谢 17 石油作为一种重要能源和