牛鞭效应的量化分析及VMI对牛鞭效应的影响研究.pdfVIP

Abstract Accompanying demanding customers, short product life cycle, increased competition and globalization, the major competition has transformed from company versus company to supply chain versus supply chain. As the a prevalent and inefficient phenomenon in supply chain, the bullwhip effect has huger negative impact on the participants involved in the supply chain and the performance of the whole supply chain, and is a realistic issue need to be solved as quickly as possible. Based on international and national literatures, this paper researches further the quantification, causes and countermeasures of the bullwhip effect from two sides: the analysis of the quantification about the bullwhip effect, and the effect of the Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI) on the bullwhip effect. The main content and findings of this paper is summarized as follows: In a two-echelon supply chain, which contains one supplier and one retailer, this paper bases on literatures[20] and[21], extends the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) demand process of (0, 1, 1) in them to a more general ARIMA demand process of (0, 1, q), and analyzes and compares the process and parameters of the quantification about bullwhip effect in traditional supply chain and VMI supply chain. According the idea provided by literature[50], this paper divides the quantitative process of the bullwhip effect into two stages: information forecast stage and information process stage, amends the defects of literature[50] which bases on the moment of time not the period of time and omits the effect of lead time, as a result, gets three important conclusions about the causes of the bullwhip effect. In a supply chain which contains one supplier and many retailer