证券市场新旧投资理念更替的扩散机制研究：一个基于R.docVIP

证券市场新旧投资理念更替过程研究：一个基于R. Boyer和A. Orléan“习俗演化”模型的分析视角 袁 佳 毛 捷( （浙江大学经济学院，杭州，310027） 研究领域：其他 证券市场新旧投资理念更替过程研究：一个基于R. Boyer和A. Orléan“习俗演化”模型的分析视角 【摘要】如何实现国内证券市场投资理念的理性化，是培育成熟证券市场的一个重大课题。由于证券市场投资理念具有自我维系、趋同性和非理性等特征，可以将其视为一种习俗，因此借助习俗演化模型来分析证券市场新旧投资理念的更替以及新理念在投资者群体中的扩散。得出的结论是：选择现有投资理念的投资者比例很高时，新投资理念短期内无法替代现有理念；随着选择新投资理念给投资者带来越来越高的效用，新理念将通过积累性更替逐步替代现有理念；选择新投资理念的成员规模和投资者群体内协同效应的限定程度，是影响新投资理念扩散的主要因素。在这一系列结论的基础上，提出了培育和推广国内证券市场理性投资理念的相关建议。 【关键词】投资理念；习俗；扩散；ESS均衡；积累性更替； Research on Transition of Investment Strategies in the Security Market：A View from R. Boyer and A. Orléan’Model of Convention Evolution Abstract: Rationalization of investment strategies plays a crucial part in development of a mature domestic security market. Meanwhile, we can regard investment strategies as a kind of convention for investment strategies own some properties of convention, such as self-enforcing, converging, non-rational and the like. Therefore, we use a model of convention evolution to study the transition of investment strategies and the diffusion process of new strategies. Our conclusions are as follows: (1) It is difficult for the new strategies’ substitution for the old ones when most of investors choose the existing investment strategies; (2) The possibility of substitution is increased step by step when the utility of choosing new strategies for the investors is gradually added through the cumulative transformation; (3) The main two factors influencing the diffusion of new investment strategies are the size of investors who choose new strategies and the degree of localizing the coordination effect in investors’ group. Finally, we also give some suggestions about popularizing the new rational investment strategies in China’s security market on the basis of these conclusions mentioned above. Key words: investment strategies, convention, analysis of ESS, cumulative transformation, diffusion 一、引 言 20世纪初以来，国际证券市场主流投资理念发生了三次大的变迁：20世纪30年代后，本杰明?格雷厄姆所倡导的价值投资大行其道；70年代后，随着计量经济学及数理统计方法在金融投资中越来越广泛的