我国外汇储备对货币政策的影响研究.pdfVIP

摘 要 随着我国外汇储备的持续快速增长，高额的外汇储备对我国货币政策的影响日益凸 现。本文在回顾了相关理论及研究成果的基础上，详细阐释了外汇储备对货币政策影响的 一般机制，并从规范和实证两方面论述了外汇储备对我国货币政策的影响。规范分析表明， 外汇储备增长迫使央行增加基础货币的投放，使得货币供应量迅速增加，从而对货币供给 结构、货币供给内生性以及货币政策时滞产生直接影响；为了消除这些影响，央行所采用 的再贷款、法定存款准备金和公开市场操作等货币政策工具的有效性受到一定限制。实证 分析表明，外汇储备和货币供应量之间存在着很强且较为稳定的正相关关系，外汇储备的 增加能够在一定程度上促进经济增长，但同时也会加大通货膨胀压力。本文认为，为了消 除巨额外汇储备对我国货币政策的负面影响，应当建立积累与利用并行的外汇储备管理机 制，优化外汇储备资产管理、构建完善的外汇储备体系，使巨额外汇储备的负面作用最小 化；同时，深化汇率形成机制改革，完善货币政策调控体系并最终降低外汇储备对货币政 策的影响程度。 关键字：外汇储备 货币政策 外汇占款 基础货币 货币供应量 I Abstract This paper first elaborates on the mechanism between foreign exchange reserves and the monetary policy based on domestic and international research results, and then explains how it affects china’s monetary policy, using both normative and empirical analyses. The theoretical analysis shows that the amount of money supply will grow fast as the foreign exchange reserves increase, and the structure, endogenous and time lag of money supply also will be changed. In order to eliminate the negtive impact, the operation tools of monerory policy will be used by central bank frequently so that their effectiveness will be subject to certain restrictions. The empirical analysis also shows that there is strong positive correlation between foreign exchange reserves and money supply. The increase of foreign exchange can promote economic development, but will also strengthen inflationary pressure. Both theoretical and empirical analyses have proved that foreign exchange reserves really have a great impact on Chinese monetary policy, which also lead to liquidity surplus, inflation and appreciation of RMB. In order to eliminate above negative impacts, a new sound foreign exchange reserve management s