基于证据推理法的亚欧大陆桥竞争力比较分析.pdfVIP

视 窗 视 窗 铁道运输与经济 RAILWAY TRANSPORT AND ECONOMY 文章编号：1003-1421(2012)11-0082-06 中图分类号：F530.85 文献标识码：B 基于证据推理法的亚欧大陆桥 竞争力比较分析 Comparative Analysis on Competitiveness of Asia-Europe Continent Bridge based on Evidence Organum 陈 静，谢新连 CHEN Jing, XIE Xin-lian （大连海事大学 综合运输研究所，辽宁 大连 116026） (Comprehensive Transport Research Institute, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, Liaoning, China) 摘 要：根据亚欧大陆桥运输的发展现状及特点，从区位概况、运输费用、运输时 间、运输能力、服务水平和参与国支持 6 个方面构建亚欧大陆桥竞争力评价指标体 系，应用层次分析法确定指标体系中各个指标的权重，并采用证据推理法，借助 专用软件，对亚欧大陆桥的竞争力进行综合评价。以釜山—阿拉木图集装箱运输 为例，通过比较分析 2 条亚欧大陆桥的竞争力情况，得出第一亚欧大陆桥优于第二 亚欧大陆桥的结论，并与实际情况比较验证该评价方法的可行性。在此基础上， 提出发展第二亚欧大陆桥的建议。 关键词：亚欧大陆桥；竞争力；指标体系；证据推理法 Abstract: Based on the development status and characteristics of Asia-Europe continent bridge transportation, the competitiveness evaluation index system of Asia-Europe continent bridge is established from 6 aspects such as location situation, transport costs, transport time, transport capacity, service level and attending countries’ support. The weighing of each index in the system is determined by AHP method. This paper takes comprehensive evaluation on the competitiveness by using evidence organum and relative software. By taking Busan-Alma Ata container transportation as example, through comparing and analyzing the competitiveness of 2 Asia-Europe continent bridges, the paper achieves the result of the first Asia-Europe continent bridge excelled to the second Asia-Europe continent bridge, and validates the feasibility of above evaluation method compared with actual situation. Based on this, the paper puts forward the suggestion of developing