中国经济结构变化对能源强度的非线性影响.pdfVIP

中国经济结构变化对能源强度的非线性影响 摘要：本文基于装备资本中明显存在技术进步这一事实，定义并估计了技术进步，包括资本体现的技 术进步和希克斯中性的技术进步。此外，在定义了经济结构、能源价格和能源强度等变量之后，设定 了这些变量间的一个门槛协整模型。检验结果证实了它们之间存在门槛关系，估计模型表明当经济结 构指标大约是 40.435%时，经济结构对能源强度有非线性的影响：在 1980-1982, 1995-1997 和 2003-2008 期间，经济结构和能源价格对能源强度有正向的影响，但是在 1983-1994, 1998-2002 和 2009 年，却产生负向的影响；在1980-2009 年期间，技术进步也对能源强度产生负向的影响。这些结 论提供证据表明经济结构对能源强度有非线性的影响，这暗示了中国应该经常对经济结构进行重新调 整，激励技术进步以便持续减少能源强度。 关键词：经济结构，能源强度，检验，门槛协整 分类号：F064.1 文献标识码：A The Nonlinear Effect of China’s Economic StructureChange on Energy Intensity 1 2 Shaopin Wang , Ke Lee (1. School of Economics，Huazhong University of Science Technology，Wuhan, China;2. College of Mathematics Computer, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, China) Abstract: This paper, based on the fact that there exists manifest technological progress embodied in equipment capital, defines and estimates technological progress(TECH) including capital embodied technological progress and Hicks-neutral technological progress. Also, we define the variables of economic structure(ES), energy price(PRICE) as well as energy intensity(EI), then specify a threshold cointegration model between them. The tests results conform there is a threshold cointegration relation among the variables, and the estimated model exposes the relation that ES has nonlinear effect on EI when ES is around 40.435%: during the periods of 1980-1982, 1995-1997 and 2003-2008, ES and PRICE produce positive effects on EI, but negative effects for the periods of 1983-1994, 1998-2002 and 2009; TECH produce negative effect on EI during 1980-2009. These conclusions provide evidences that economic structure has the nonlinear effects on energy intensity and imply China should always carry