定期报告房地产市场继续释放好转信号.pdfVIP

Report | Macro Analysis Regular Report Housing Market Continued to Improve 20 August 2012 US Economic Data Weekly Wrap （3rd Week August) Key Data USA % 11 12E Economic Data/Event Review: GDP 1.7 2.0 CPI 3.17 2.5 The US consumer price index was unchanged in July and rose by 1.4% on a Unemployment 9.0 8.2 Trade YoY basis, marking the smallest 12-month change since November 2010. U.S. core balance/GDP -3.14 -3.0 inflation edged up by 2.1% during the past 12 months. Overall, we have seen Fiscal -8.2 -7.2 moderate inflation in U.S. Taking the energy price which has dropped to the price balance/GDP level of the end of 2010 and the drought which will push up the food prices Policy rate 0.25 0.25 eventually into consideration, together with YoY core inflation growth rate which is Dollar Index 80.187 81.0 Eurozone above the readings prior to the launch of previous two rounds of QE, we maintain % 11 12E our view that the Fed will implement new stimulus policy to bolster the economic GDP 1.4 -0.5 recovery but not via expanding the balance sheet. CPI 2.69 2.1 Unemployment 10.17 10.6 After three straight monthly declines, sales at U.S. retailers increased 0.8% in Trade balance/GDP -0.33 -0.1 July. Purchases climbed in all 13 categories, the first time thats happened since Fiscal 2005, which is partly driven by lower energy cost and improving labor market in -