如何开始你本科阶段的经济学研究.pptVIP

Other Problems Often you have to worry about endogeneity of the key explanatory variable Endogeneity could arise from omitted variables that are not observed in the data Endogeneity could arise because the model is really part of a simultaneous equation Endogeneity could arise due to measurement error Other Problems (continued) If you have panel data, can consider a fixed effects model (or first differences) Problem with FE is that need good variation over time Can instead try to find a perfect instrument and perform 2SLS Problem with IV is finding a good instrument Interpreting Your Results Keep theory in mind when interpreting results Be careful to keep ceteris paribus in mind Keep in mind potential problems with your estimates – be cautious drawing conclusions Can get an idea of the direction of bias due to omitted variables, measurement error or simultaneity Further Issues Some problems are just too hard to easily solve with available data May be able to approach the problem in several ways, but something wrong with each one Provide enough information for a reader to decide whether they find your results convincing or not Further Issues (continued) Don’t worry if you don’t “prove” your theory With unexpected results, you want to be careful in thinking through potential biases But, if you have carefully specified your model and feel confident you have unbiased estimates, then that’s just the way things are * 如何开始“经济学研究” 经济学研究的性质 运用规范的经济学分析框架来解释和理解经济行为和现象 什么是规范的经济学分析框架？ 经济学的视角：经济人偏好、生产技术和制度约束、可供使用的资源禀赋 人们选择结果的改变源于约束条件的改变 经济学的“参照系”或“基准点” ：基本的经济学定理 经济学的“分析工具”：各种图象模型、数学模型、计量模型 例子：美国60年代“妇女解放”运动 经济学解释与社会学解释的差异 背景：美国60年代中期，大批的女性放弃传统的贤妻良母角色，晚婚晚育，进入到职业市场，成为新型的职业女性。与此同时，美国出现了大规模的追求男女平等，提高妇女社会地位的社会运动 社会学家的解释 思想的动员：Betty Friedan的思想鼓吹 有力的领导：二战后，美国妇女进入大学的人数激增。这些受过高等教育训练的妇女思想开放，敢于向传统观念挑战，且具有一定的组织能力 有利的社会、政治环境：爆发于60年代初的黑人民权运动，新左派和反主流文化等大规模群众性运动的影响 坚实的社会基础：二次大战后，美国经济得到了大规模发展，尤其是第三产业。它们的发展为大量妇女进入劳动大军创造了机会 评论 以上解释都是对事实的一种罗列 罗列本身不能成为对另一个事实或现象的解释 对现象的解释需要因果关系的分析