河北省城乡固定资产投资增长影响GDP增长的实证的分析.doc

河北省固定资产投资增长影响GDP增长的实证分析 摘 要 改革开放以来，河北省经济建设取得了巨大的成就，是全国经济增长较快的省份之一，其国民经济正处于一个新的扩张时期。固定资产投资是社会扩大再生产的有效途径，固定资产投资的增长会带动经济增长。河北省固定资产投资在经济增长中发挥了重要的作用，但也存在一些问题，因此，有必要河北省固定资产投资增长对GDP增长的影响做深入的研究。 本文将基于VAR模型分析河北省城乡固定资产投资增长对经济增长的影响和作用，由协整分析得出河北省固定资产投资与GDP存在着长期稳定的均衡关系， GDP增长与固定资产投资增长的变化趋势有很强的一致性。固定资产投资增长在实证分析的基础上，结合已有理论研究成果，提出优化固定资产投资的政策建议，从而在经济持续稳定增长的背景下，确定河北省固定资产投资方向、策略。 关键词：固定资产投资；GDP增长；VAR模型 Fixed assets investment has played an important role in propelling regional economic growth; however, there are still some problems in investment of Hebei province. Therefore, it needs to make a deep study on the effects caused by fixed assets investments in Hebei province. This paper analyzes the effect of fixed assets investments in Hebei province by urban area and rural area on the economic growth based on VAR Model. Co-integrate analysis indicates that there is a long term balance between fixed assets investment and economic growth, and the growth speed of GDP is strongly consistent with the speed of fixed assets investments in the urban area and rural area of Hebei province. According to the results of the analysis of the impulse response function and variance decomposition, we can notice that urban and rural fixed assets investment growth are all have different extent of affection and contribution to the GDP growth. The elasticity of urban fixed asset investment to GDP is 0.309548, while the figure is 0.073635 when the urban fixed asset investment is one time lagged. Both of these elasticity coefficients are small, which implies that urban and rural fixed asset investments have small influence on GDP’s growth. The especial lower one-time-lag coefficient of rural fixed asset investment means the rural investment’ effect is not significant. At the same time, the results of the VAR model’s impulse response function and variance decomposition shows that GDP growth of Hebei province is mainly affected by the former time’s value. Despite the urban and rural fixed asset investment hav