城市天然气管网预警系统研究与实现.pdfVIP

2 0 9 V o l. 2 0N o. 9 2 0 1 0 9 Ch ina Safety Sc ience Journa l Sep . 2 0 1 0 * 马 磊 李永树 教授 ( 西南交通大学 地理信息工程中心, 成都 610031) : 6208030( ) : X913. 2 : A 随着城市天然气管网密度加大, 由于天然气管理手 滞后导致的天然气泄漏事故急剧 增加基于G S技术并结合燃气管网定量风险分析( QRA ) 模型, 提出利用定量风险分析模型实现 管网风险预警的方法结合 C# + A rcEng ine编程技术, 开发城市天然气管网预警系统, 实现管网失 效率分析燃气事故扩散模拟火灾及爆炸模拟个人风险等值线绘制社会风险分析等功能, 能够进 行区域性事故后果预测个人风险和社会风险计算安全性评价及应急预案编制等项工作 地理信息系统( G S) ; 天然气; 定量风险分析( QRA ) ; 管网; 失效率 R esearch and R ealization of U rban N atural Gas P ipeline N etw ork Prew arn ing System MA Lei LI Yongshu, Prof. ( Cen ter of G S Eng ineering, Southw est J iaotong Un iversity, Chengdu 610031, China) Abstr ct: W ith the density of urban natura l gas pipe line increasing, the leak ing acciden ts a lso increase rapidly due to its hysteret ic m anagem ent. Based on G S techno logy and QRA m ode,l an applicable m ethod m aking use of QRA m odel in G S is proposed to realize the early risk warn ing for the p ipeline. Comb in ing w ith C# and A rcEng ine techno logy, the early w arn ing system for urban natura l gas p ipeline netw ork is de veloped, w hich possesses the functions, such as analyzing the fa ilure rate of the pipe line newt ork, smi ula ting the d iffusion of a leaking accident, a fire or a blast accident, protracting an iso line fo r the ind iv idua l risk and analyzing the societal risk. W ith this prew arning system, the severity of an accident, the indiv id ua l and soc ieta l risk in the certa in area can be ca lculated,