系统动力学在空港区域规划环境影响评价中的应用[1].pdfVIP

中国环境科学 2012,32(5) ：933~941 China Environmental Science 系统动力学在空港区域规划环境影响评价中的应用 刘 慧 1,2,郭怀成 1*,盛 虎 1,都小尚 1,3,李 娜 1,杨永辉 1 (1.北京大学环境科学与工程学院,北京 100871 ； 2.香港中文大学地理与资源管理系,香港；3.郑州市环境保护局,河南 郑州 450007) 摘要：作为机场与城市间的过渡区,空港区域具有经济-社会-环境发展影响因素众多、变化快的特征.针对此,本文基于空港区域系统动力 学模拟模型,结合类比法和情景分析法,用于空港区域不同发展方案的经济、社会、环境影响预测和评价.具体步骤包括:发展分析-影响识 别-模型构建-零方案/规划方案模拟-替代方案设计-减缓措施,各步骤间动态反馈.对郑州航空港区进行案例研究,结果表明,相较于零方案, 规划方案具有经济社会发展优、污染排放少的优点,但仍无法满足环境容量要求;设计了 3 种替代情景方案,据此提出产业结构优化、能源 结构调整等减缓措施. 关键词：规划环评；系统动力学；情景分析；郑州航空港区 中图分类号：X820.3 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1000-6923(2012)05-0933-09 The application of system dynamics method in environmental impact assessment of planning in airport zone. LIU 1,2 1* 1 1,3 1 1 Hui , GUO Huai-cheng , SHENG Hu , DU Xiao-shang , LI Na , YANG Yong-hui (1.College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China ；2.Department of Geography and Resources Management, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China ；3.Zhengzhou Municipal Environmental Protection Bureau, Zhengzhou 450007, China). China Environmental Science, 2012,32(5)：933~941 Abstract ：As connection area of airport and city, the socio-economic-environmental development of airport zone is affected by multiple factors and changes rapidly, which makes the environmental impact assessment of its planning difficult to predict. An integrated methodology framework, including system dynamic simulation model for airport zone, parameter analogy and scenario analysis, was developed to predict and assess the socio-economic-environmental impacts of different developing modes. Specifically, the framework consists of several steps: analysis of regional development, identification of environmental impacts, model constitution, zer