货币政策下流动性过剩实证与研究.pdfVIP

摘 要 2009 年金融危机以来，各国纷纷推出扩张性的财政与货币政策，向市场注入了 大量的流动性，市场资金逐步宽裕。当经济逐步摆脱国际金融危机的阴影走向正轨 时，上半年激增的银行信贷引起了各界对流动性过剩的担忧。在此背景下，本文试 图通过研究中国的流动性以及导致流动性存在的因素，着重讨论货币政策常用的工 具对流动性所产生的冲击时效及其程度。 基于大量的相关文献，本文首先找出适用于中国流动性的衡量指标，界定流动 性过剩区间，讨论流动性过剩期间的特征，从理论上探讨这些特征出现的原因。本 文将影响流动性的因素分为五大制度原因，选取相应的代表变量与流动性指标联立 建立VAR 模型。重点讨论了政府解决流动性常用的手段对现实的短期和长期的影响。 本文认为：因为利率对货币政策的反应最为敏感，短期中货币政策可以通过对同业 拆借利率、存贷款利率的调节，迅速调整流动性过剩；其次是存款准备金率，且它 在中长期中的效果更加明显；长期中，可以同时通过控制信贷和存款准备金率的作 用来解决流动性问题。而汇率与国际收支方面的政策只作为辅助政策，因为汇率与 国际收支对实体经济的影响更大，这两种政策对流动性的调节是通过实体的经济活 动对货币流动性的吸收来实现，而且外汇占款对流动性的调节作用更强。本文结合 中国的实际货币政策，探讨了政策的效果。 关键词：流动性过剩 向量自回归模型 货币政策工具 I Abstract Since the 2009 financial crisis, main countries have set up expansionary fiscal and monetary policies. But these policies inject much liquidity into the market. When the economy is gradually getting better, the excess liquidity appears mainly because of the expansionary policies. In this paper, it focuses on Chinas liquidity, and amid those factors causing liquidity, it emphasizes the extend impact on the liquidity of monetary policies. Based on the definition of excess liquidity and its measurement variables, the paper discusses the characteristics and span of excess liquidity and its theoretical reason. Secondly, based on previous survey, we choose five main policy instruments which affect excess liquidity as factors to set up a VAR model. As a result, in the short-term the excess liquidity can be adjusted by the interbank interest rates, deposit and loan interest rate at once. Since these rates are sensitive and can respond the information at a fast speed. In the medium or in the long term, the adjustment of the deposit reserve ratio has more obvious effects. This gives us some policy implications, in orde