影响居民消费水平因素的定性定量分析.docVIP

影响居民消费水平因素的定性定量分析 摘要:改革开放以来,中国经济始终保持着高速增长,居民的消费水平也逐步攀升.消费作为经济增长的三驾马车之一在国民经济中具有举足轻重的地位,关注消费可以更好的制定经济政策,促进国民经济又好又快发展.中“十二五“规划公报中消费被提到了前所未有的高度检验,居民消费,国民收入,恩格尔系数,人口自然增长率,通胀率,定性定量分析 Qualitative and Quantitative Analysis of Factors Influencing the Consumption Abstract: Since reform and opening up, Chinas economy has always maintained a high growth, residents consumption levels have been rising gradually. Consumption growth as one of the troika has a pivotal position in the national economy, focusing on consumption can better develop economic policies, promoting sound and rapid development of the national economy. The central twelve-five planning bulletin, consumption has been referred to an unprecedented height, so the study of consumer problems on Chinas economic development is of great significance. This article analyses the factors influencing the consumption level, and regards national income, total income of rural residents in cities and towns , Engels coefficient, the rate of inflation and the natural population growth rate as studying factors. At first, using Single Factor Analysis to analyze the problem, getting rid of the worse fitting result, on this basis, putting all significant factors in the same model, then ,beginning Multiple Regression Analysis. Finally, getting model of meaning through the analysis and raising reasonable proposals to increase the level of consumption of households. Key words: Multiple Regression Analysis; test; national income; total income of rural residents; Engels coefficient; rate of inflation ; natural population growth rate; qualitative and quantitative analysis 1.背景概述： 长期以来,我国的居民消费增长始终滞后于经济增长消费断层影响整体的消费结构优化和升级检验进一步对变量进行剔除；然后进行多元回归分析,进一步通过检验来试找出消费与各因素的关系；最后,基于所建的模型的结果分析,对提升消费给出了相应的合理化建议. 2. 对影响居民消费水平各因素间的定性分析 2.1对全体居民消费水平绝对数的定性分析 居民消费水平[6]是指居民在物质产品和劳务的消费过程中,对满足人们生存、发展和享受需要方面所达到的程度.通过消费的物质产品和劳务的数量和质量反映出来.根据历年的统计数据[4],我国的居民消费水平一直呈上升趋势,所以根据1978-2012年的数据,可以通过数据拟合大致预测未来20年的总体发展趋势为： 图1 全体居民消费水平趋势预测 2.2定性确定影响居民消费水平因素 通过