我国未来时期径流对气候变化响应.pdfVIP

Journal of Water Resources Research 水资源研究, 2012, 1, 380-387 doi:10.4236/jwrr.2012.15059 Published Online October 2012 (/journal/jwrr.html) Response of Runoff over the Future Period to Climate * Change in China Gaoxu Wang, Junbiao Wei, Hongzhen Zhao, Baodeng Hou Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Email: gxwang@ Received: Aug. 6th st th , 2012; revised: Aug. 21 , 2012; accepted: Sep. 6 , 2012 Abstract: For revealing the impacts of future climate change on water resources in China, this article used the natural runoff, precipitation and temperature of National Water Resources Zone in 1961-2000, established the regression model about the natural runoff, precipitation, and temperature; and calculated the runoff in 2011-2050 in different modes which combinated with the precipitation and temperature data of WCRP open publishing coupled mode comparison plans-stage 3 data, analysised the climate change response on runoff. Results indicates that: the precipitation, temperature and runoff in all water resources zones are correlated significantly, the effects of regression analysis are very good; in A1B, and A2 and B1 3 modes, the future pe- riod (2011-2050) average runoffs in Haihe Zone, Yellow River Zone, Liaohe Zone, Songhuajiang Zone, Southwest Rivers Zone and Northwest Rivers Zone are larger than the baseline period (1961-2000). In the three modes, Pearl River Zone’s future period runoff is less than baseline period by 3.89%; Routheast Rivers Zone