基于混沌时序预测方法冲击地压预测的研究.pdfVIP

第 25 卷 第 5 期 岩石力学与工程学报 Vol.25 No.5 2006 年 5 月 Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering May ，2006 基于混沌时序预测方法的冲击地压预测研究 蒋金泉，李 洪 ( 山东科技大学 矿山灾害预防控制重点实验室，山东 泰安 271019) 摘要：冲击地压的预测研究通常是通过监测对冲击地压的发生、发展过程比较敏感的指标来进行的，监测指标值 的大小和变化规律是进行预测的基础，监测数据在未来一定时期的峰值变化和走势变化规律对于预测过程具有重 要意义。首先，通过对互信息和伪邻近点数的计算，确定观测序列的延迟时间和嵌入维数等相空间重构参数；然 后，在对观测序列相空间重构的基础上，运用一阶局域近似法和基于最大 Lyapunov 指数法等混沌预测方法对冲击 地压工作面的观测时间序列进行数学建模，并与传统的数理统计预测方法进行对比分析；最后，用实例对冲击危 险区域的电磁辐射序列及顶板下沉速度序列等进行预测运算和分析，其结果表明，运用混沌理论的预测方法可达 到较高的预测精度。 关键词：采矿工程；混沌；冲击地压；预测；Lyapunov 指数 中图分类号：TD 32 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1000 –6915(2006)05 –0889 –07 STUDY ON ROCK BURST FORECAST WITH FORECAST METHOD BASED ON CHAOTIC TIME SERIES JIANG Jinquan ，LI Hong (Key Laboratory of Mine Disaster Prevention and Control ，Shandong University of Science and Technology ， Taian，Shandong 271019 ，China) Abstract ：The forecast study on rock burst is carried out by monitoring some indices which are sensitive to the developing process of rock burst. The values and changing rules of the monitoring indices are the foundations to forecast rock burst ；and the changing rules of peak values and trend in future of monitoring data have important meaning to the monitoring process. The forecast model considers that the monitoring series of rock burst is evoked by random factors ；and the theory of random processes is used to simulate the movement rules of the system. The developing process of rock burst has its own rules and characteristics. The monitoring series is the exterior behavior of the systematic variables in the course of the development of rock burst ；and the theory of random p