考虑相关失效连续系统单元化时变可靠性模型.pdfVIP

考虑相关失效的连续系统单元化时变可靠性 模型∗ 郝广波 ，谢里阳 （东北大学 机械工程与自动化学院，辽宁 沈阳 110004 ） 摘 要：将连续系统离散成单元，将其当成一个串联系统来看待，详细分析了连续系统材料强度分散性的两种影响 因素：材料的自身不均匀性以及材料制造质量的不稳定性，通过次序统计量建立了系统级的相关失效可靠性模型，并应用 Monte Carlo 法进行了仿真验证。同时，应用时齐泊松随机过程来模拟连续系统所受到的载荷作用，并考虑强度随时间的 退化，最终建立了考虑相关失效的连续系统时变可靠性模型。研究表明：连续系统的失效概率随时间的变化不断的增大， 而且系统的失效率曲线呈“浴盆”形状。 关键词：连续系统；失效概率；相关失效；强度分散性；次序统计量；随机过程；Monte Carlo 中图分类号： V 215.7, TB114.3 文献标识码：A TIME-DEPENDENT RELIABILITY MODLE OF CONTINUOUS SYSTEM CONSIDERING DEPENDENCE-FAILURE BASED ON SEGMENT-PARTITON HAO Guang-bo XIE Li-yang ( School of Mechanical Engineering Automation, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110004) Abstract: Continuous system is considered as series system after dividing the system into segments, two influence factors of material strength of continuous system are analyzed in detail like material inhomogeneity and material quality stability, and dependent failure reliability model of continuous system is established based on sequence statistics, which is validated by Monte Carlo. Besides, the process of load acting is described with Poisson stochastic process, strength degeneration is considered, and the time-dependent reliability model of system is established considering dependent failure. The result shows the failure probability of continuous system increases with time, and the failure rate curve is bathtub shape. Key words: continuous system; failure probability; dependent failure; strength decentralization; order statistics; stochastic process；Monte Carlo [4] 失效概率进行评价 。需要计算整条管道的故障频率 0 引言 时, 还须乘以一个长度系数进行修正[5]，没有可