Forecasting--预测分析模型.pdf

Chapter 5 Chapter 5 Forecasting Forecasting Learning Objectives Learning Objectives Students will be able to: 1. Understand and know when to use various families of forecasting models. 2. Compare moving averages, exponential smoothing, and trend time-series models. 3. Seasonally adjust data. 4. Understand Delphi and other qualitative decision-making approaches. 5. Compute a variety of error measures. Chapter Outline Chapter Outline 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Types of Forecasts 5.3 Scatter Diagrams and Time Series 5.4 Measures of Forecast Accuracy 5.5 Time-Series Forecasting Models 5.6 Monitoring and Controlling Forecasts 5.7 Using the Computer to Forecast Introduction Introduction Eight steps to forecasting: 1. Determine the use of the forecast. 2. Select the items or quantities to be forecasted. 3. Determine the time horizon of the forecast. 4. Select the forecasting model or models. 5. Gather the data needed to make the forecast. 6. Validate the forecasting model. 7. Make the forecast. 8. Implement the results. These steps provide a systematic way of initiating, designing, and implementing a forecasting system. Types of Forecasts Types of Forecasts Forecasting Techniques No single method is superior Qualitative Models: Time-Series Methods: Causal Methods: attempt to include include historical data include a variety of subjective factors over a time interval factors Delphi