房地产信贷信用风险论文：房地产信贷信用风险的度量研究.docVIP

房地产信贷信用风险论文：房地产信贷信用风险的度量研究 【中文摘要】信用风险是金融业最古老的风险之一,在银行业中备受关注。近年来,我国房地产行业迅速发展,成为国家重点支柱产业,但是由于其运作模式,市场不确定性的逐步增加,风险不容忽视。本文以四川省为例,研究房地产信贷信用风险的度量与管理。随着计量经济学的发展,国外的信用风险度量已经从定性分析转向定量分析,各个机构也开发了自己的信用度量工具,信用管理方面也有着很先进成熟的经验。我国研究信用风险起步尚晚,不管理论和实践都不是很成熟,需要丰富发展。本文从四川省房地产市场的发展及现状出发,详细分析影响房地产信贷信用风险产生的因素,从而为计量模型的变量选择奠定基础。采用2003年1季度至2009年4季度四川省工业增加值、川房景气指数、企业景气指数数据,运用CPV模型对信用风险进行度量,并做出相关分析。最后文章从信用风险产生因素探讨如何进行信用风险管理,从而降低信用风险,维持金融的稳定。本文得出的主要结论是CPV对我国某个区域的度量也是适用的,具有一定的合理性和有效性。四川房地产受宏观经济和政策环境影响较大,与全国房地产发展有着类似的周期和发展阶段。构建全面合理的风险管理体系对于防范信用风险至关重要。 【英文摘要】Cridit risk is the one of olddest risk in financial industry, taken more intention in banking business. Resent years, Real estate expanding fastly in our country,to be the important pillar industry. But because of its function model,the raised of market indeterminacy, it can not be ignored. This article take example Sichuan province, reserch the measurement and management of real estate lending credict risk.To the improvement of econometrics, credit risk measurement has become from qualitative analysis to quantitative analysis in foreign country. Some institute exploitation their own mearuement tackle. It also has advanced and mature experiance in credict risk management.It is not long time in reserching in credit risk in our country, theory and practic are both not mature. It need enrich and emprovement. This article begian with the history and current situation of Si Chuan real state, analysising the factor of influncing the credict risk of real state, using first quartry in 2003 to forth quartry in 2008 value added、town people housing expending、SRBI、EBI data of Sichuan province to measure credict risk and to analysis relevanted. At last, this article explore that how to manege credit risk to reduce the risk, to keep the steady of finance.The main conclution of this article is that the CPV model is fittable for some erea,it has its own rationality and validity. The real state in sichaun is reflected by macroeconomics and policy environment.