安全工程专业 系统安全工程课件 第三章.pptVIP

第三章 事故树分析 第一节 事故树分析概述 一·事故树分析的基本概念 事故树分析（Fault Tree Analysis）是安全工程中常用的一种分析方法。它是一种演绎推理法，该方法把系统可能发生的某种事故与导致事故发生的各种原因之间的逻辑关系用一种称为事故树的树图形表示，通过对事故树的定性与定量分析，找出事故发生的主要原因，为确定安全对策提供可靠的依据，以达到预测与预防事故发生的目的。 第三章 事故树分析 第一节 事故树分析概述 一·事故树分析的基本概念 事故树分析（Fault Tree Analysis）是美国Bell实验室H.A.Watson于1961年首创,并应用于民兵导弹发射系统的安全评价中.在此之后,逐渐推广到航空,航天,核工业及其他行业中. 第三章 事故树分析 第一节 事故树分析概述 一·事故树分析的基本概念 Fault Tree Analysis ? “Don’t meet troubles halfway” Sixteen-century proverb ? Fault Tree Analysis(FTA) is a graphical method commonly used in both reliability engineering and system safety engineering (though it is more well know in reliability circles). It is deductive approach that is very powerful as a qualitative analysis tool, but it can be quantified. 第三章 事故树分析 第一节 事故树分析概述 一·事故树分析的基本概念 The engineer postulates a top event – or fault – such as train derailment, then branches down from top event, listing the faults in the system that must occur for the top event to occur. This top-down method forces the engineer to go through systematically, listing the various sequential and parallel events or combinations of faults that must occur for the undesired top event. Logic gates and standard Boolean algebra allow the engineer to quantify the fault tree with event probabilities and thus determine the probability of the top event. 第三章 事故树分析 第一节 事故树分析概述 一·事故树分析的基本概念 It is important to understand that this is not a model of all possible system failures or all possible causes, but rather, a model of particular system failure modes and their constituent faults that lead to the top event. Like the other safety analysis techniques discussed previously, only credible faults are assessed. The faults can be events associated with component hardware failures,software glitches, human errors, environmental conditions – in short, any of the elements that make up the complete system. 第三章 事故树分析 第一节 事故树分析概述 一·事故树分析的基本概念 The fault tree was first developed in 1961 for the US military intercontinental mis