陕西省工业化、城镇与农业现代化互动关系的实证研究.doc

陕西省工业化、城镇化与农业现代化互动关系的实证研究 Empirical Research on the Relationships among Industrialization Urbanization and Agro-modernization in Shaanxi Province 夏显力 郝晶辉 \Xia Xianli Hao Jinghui （西北农林科技大学经济管理学院 陕西杨凌 712100） 【摘要】本文运用Johansen协整理论及误差修正模型实证分析了陕西省1991年至2010年工业化、城镇化与农业现代化之间的动态关系。结果显示：陕西“三化”之间存在长期协整关系且呈同向发展态势；但短期内工业化和农业现代化水平的提升会阻碍城镇化水平的提高。在滞后两期的情况下，陕西省工业化和城镇化互为格兰杰因果关系；工业化是农业现代化的格兰杰原因，而农业现代化不是工业化的格兰杰原因。脉冲响应和方差分析表明：城镇化对工业化和农业现代化发展的冲击总体上较为显著，工业化和农业现代化发展对城镇化正向冲击较弱且逐步递减。进而在此基础上提出了同步推进陕西省“三化”协调发展的具体政策建议。 【关键词】工业化； 城镇化 ；农业现代化 ；协整检验 ；陕西省 【中图分类号】 F127 【文献标识码】 A 【Abstract】 To identify the dynamic relationships among industrialization , urbanization and agro-modernization in Shaanxi Province, the research uses Johansen cointegration test and the Error Correction Model to analyze the data related in Shaanxi Province from 1991 to 2010. The results are as follows: three-modernizations in Shaanxi Province are cointegratedly related in long term and their development trends are in the same direction; while in the short run , the development of industrialization and ago-modernization are opposite to urbanization; in the situation of lagging two periods, industrialization and urbanization in Shaanxi Province are mutually Granger causality; industrialization is the Granger cause of agro-modernization while agro-modernization does not Granger cause industrialization. The impulse response analysis and variance decomposition show that the one-time-shock of agro-modernization and industrialization can only cause the small and short-run fluctuation of the level of urbanization , but that the one-time-shock of urbanization can cause the fluctuation of the level of agro-modernization and industrialization in the study period . On the basis of the results above, the advices and suggestions are made accordingly in the end of the article. 【Key words】 industrialization，urbanization；agro-modernization；Johansen cointegration test；Shaanxi Province 1.引言 针对农业现代化严重滞后于工业化和城镇化的现实，党的十七届五中全会提出：“在工